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Being Charged by an Elephant: A story of globalization and inequality

Published on April 19, 2017        Author: 

Along with many economists and globalization scholars, my favorite graph these days is the elephant graph. Named for its distinctive elephant-shaped curve (see below), this graph shows the rise in real incomes for people in different income brackets throughout the world over a twenty year period of intense economic globalization (1998 to 2008). Economists often like to tell us that free trade is good because it is a rising tide that lifts all boats. What this graph suggests, however, is that economic globalization has produced clear winners and clear losers. This division seems to be playing an important role in explaining some of the rising nationalist and pro-protectionist sentiments we are witnessing in certain developed states, as shown by the rise of Trump and the vote for Brexit.

So who has won and lost in the age of economic globalization? Read the rest of this entry…

 

Leonard Cohen on Brexit

Published on March 31, 2017        Author: 

I’ve seen you change the water into wine
I’ve seen you change it back to water, too
I sit at your table every night
I try but I just don’t get high with you
I wish there was a treaty we could sign
I do not care who takes this bloody hill
I’m angry and I’m tired all the time
I wish there was a treaty, I wish there was a treaty
Between your love and mine

Ah, they’re dancing in the street—it’s Jubilee
We sold ourselves for love but now we’re free
I’m so sorry for that ghost I made you be
Only one of us was real and that was me

Read the rest of this entry…

Filed under: EJIL Analysis
 
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Editorial: The Case for a Kinder, Gentler Brexit

Published on February 6, 2017        Author: 

Of course, we know better than to be shooting at each other; but the post-23 June  relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union is woefully bellicose, and increasingly so. In tone and mood, diplomatic niceties are barely maintained and in content positions seem to be hardening. I am mostly concerned with attitudes and positions of and within the Union and its 27 remaining Member States. Handling Brexit cannot be dissociated from the handling of the broader challenges facing the Union. I will readily accept that the UK leadership bears considerable responsibility for the bellicosity and the escalating lawfare. But the inequality of arms so strikingly favours the Union that its attitude and policies can afford a certain magnanimous disregard of ongoing British provocations.

It is easy to understand European Union frustration with the UK. I want to list three – the first being an understandable human reaction. It is clear that when Cameron called for a renegotiation followed by a referendum he had no clue what it was he wanted and needed to renegotiate. The Union waited patiently for months to receive his list – the insignificance of which, when it did come, was breathtaking. For ‘this’ one was willing to risk breaking up the Union and perhaps the UK? Read the rest of this entry…

 
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Continent in Crisis

Published on October 7, 2016        Author: 

Note from Joseph Weiler, Editor-in-Chief of the European Journal of International Law:

I have invited Jan Klabbers, member of our Scientific Advisory Board, to write a Guest Editorial for this issue of EJIL (Vol. 27 (2016) No. 3).

In the early 1990s, when many were dancing in the streets to celebrate the fall of the Berlin Wall and the long-awaited arrival of the end of history in the form of a liberal victory, historian Mark Mazower was working on a book that would caution some sobriety. The victory of liberalism, he wrote, had not been inevitable, nor due to its inner charms and attractions; it had, instead, been hard-won, locked in deadly battle with the forces of totalitarianism both on the left and the right. The fact that liberal democracy came out victorious owed as much to the failings, structural and strategic, of fascism and communism as to liberalism’s own virtues. If anything, so Mazower demonstrated, Europe has always been a rich and fertile soil for totalitarian movements; the fact that these were momentarily defeated should not result in too much complacency and self-congratulations about European values and all that.

Recent events demonstrate painfully just how correct Mazower’s assessment was. While communism remains largely dead and buried (unless one counts the surprise emergence of left-wing politicians in the UK and even the US as manifestations of a resurgence), Euro-fascism is clearly on the rise again. This is visible in Hungary and Poland, where the Rule of Law has been all but abandoned or, in an alternative narrative, cynically deployed so as to undermine itself. This is visible in much of the Balkans, with governments building fences and walls to keep out people fleeing persecution and destitution. This is visible in the streets of Finland, where self-appointed vigilantes patrol the streets at night in order to fight largely imaginary crimes, and find considerable encouragement in the speech by which the President inaugurated the parliamentary year in 2016. This is visible in Denmark, which enacts laws to strip poor people of their belongings so as to pay for being treated unkindly. This is visible in the streets of Germany and the Netherlands, with Pegida demonstrations demanding attention. This is visible in Ukraine, where the streets are filled with Russian militias. This is visible in the United Kingdom’s rediscovered isolationism mixed with delusions of grandeur. This is visible, in short, all over Europe: the triumph of liberal democracy is quickly giving way to the triumph of what can only be called some kind of fascism. And it is not limited to Europe, if the presidential campaigning in the US is anything to go by: who would have thought, even a few months ago, that a vulgar loudmouth such as Donald Trump, not hindered by any trait of common decency, would stand any chance of success? Read the rest of this entry…

Filed under: Editorials, EJIL, European Union
 
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There is Chutzpah and Then There is David Cameron

Published on October 6, 2016        Author: 

It is hard to translate the Yiddish word Chutzpah. Cheek doesn’t quite capture it. ‘What a cheek’ is not the same as ‘What Chutzpah’. Chutzpah involves a certain brazenness. ‘What Chutzpah’ is usually associated with a rubbing of the eyes or a shake of the head in disbelief. Even a kind of perverse admiration. The classical example of Chutzpah is the son who kills his mother and father and then turns to the judge and pleads: Mercy, I’m an orphan.

Cameron has taken Chutzpah to new heights.

A good place to start would be in the final weeks of the campaign when Cameron’s refrain was ‘Brits don’t Quit!’ Rub your eyes – this from the Brit who just months earlier had presented his ‘either we get this and this and that or, well yes, we quit’. Takes some nerve, does it not? Of course to have any credibility in his pre-referendum Brussels negotiations he would have to sell himself and his country as ready to quit.

You would think that in playing against the grain of ‘Brits don’t quit’ there would have to be something huge at stake. You may just remember the weeks that became months when the world and its sister were waiting for him to present his list of demands. You will certainly not have forgotten the disdainful disbelief from all and sundry when he finally presented his Potage of Lentils – that thin gruel of demands for which he was willing to gamble the future of the UK membership of the European Union and much more.

It was also an insult to one’s political intelligence. As a ploy to address internal party politics – the real reason behind the whole unfortunate manoeuvre – did he really believe that even if his demands were met in full (and they mostly were) this would keep the wolves at bay? Even more damning in my view, it was clear that Cameron never grasped the serious problems of the European construct which, if one were to use the ‘nuclear option’ of threatening to quit, could and perhaps should have been raised. Read the rest of this entry…

Filed under: Editorials, EJIL, European Union
 
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‘Brexit’, Article 50 TEU and the Constitutional Significance of the UK Referendum

Published on July 6, 2016        Author: 

This post tries to answer two questions:

First, who has the right to trigger the process of Article 50 TEU under the UK constitution? Second, what is constitutional significance of the UK referendum?

Article 50 TEU is the provision that governs the process of withdrawal of an existing EU Member State from the Union. The provision was introduced by the Treaty of Lisbon and it has not been used thus far. This provision is drafted in a way that is not too prescriptive with the clear intention for allowing a considerable margin for manoeuvring in the ensuing negotiations.

Article 50 (1) stipulates that a Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements whereas Article 50 (2) provides that the relevant Member State must notify its intention to the European Council.

It is clear that once the process of Article 50 begins, the negotiating position of the Union is strengthened. This is because Article 50 (3) TEU imposes a time frame for the completion of negotiations (two years). If at the end of this period the EU and the Member State fail to reach an agreement, the Treaties cease to apply to that Member State thus leading to a disorderly withdrawal. The two year period may be extended by the European Council acting unanimously. Since the costs of a disorderly withdrawal are apparently higher for the Member State that leaves the Union, it is obvious that the two year time-frame hangs like a sword of Damocles over its shoulders. This means that the question of when the process begins and on whose initiative is critical.

The ‘who’ and ‘when’ under the UK Constitutional Arrangements Regarding the Invocation of Article 50 TEU

The question of who has the power to trigger Article 50 TEU has attracted a deserved amount of attention by scholars and commentators. Most of the scholars agree that EU partners cannot trigger the withdrawal process (see for example Marl Elliott, Sionaidh Douglas-Scott, Nick Barber, Tom Hickman and Jeff King).

This is certainly the case from a legal point of view however, it is possible for the EU to increase the pressure on the UK to trigger the renegotiation process. How? Read the rest of this entry…

Filed under: EJIL Analysis, European Union
 
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Brexit and Hamilton’s King George: You’ll Be Back and What Comes Next

Published on June 28, 2016        Author: 

If I may be forgiven for lowering the level of conversation (yet again) after the excellent post by Jure Vidmar & Craig Eggett and Larry Helfer’s post over on Opinio Juris discussing many important legal issues – I just wanted to share a (rare) happy Brexitian thought. In Broadway’s smash-hit Hamilton, coming soon to London’s West End, King George sings a delectable British Invasion-y break-up song to his American soon-to-be-ex subjects (“You’ll Be Back”) and then follows up with two shorter songs on the same tune (one of them, “What Comes Next”, works magnificently here as you’ll see). Now, I concede that the analogy is imperfect, but humour me. Just picture in your head Donald Tusk or (better yet) Jean-Claude Juncker at his charming best, belting this out to Britain on behalf of the EU. Got that? Hold that in, take a breath. Then listen, read the lyrics below, and tell me you can’t feel the magic. Am I right or what?

 

Read the rest of this entry…

Filed under: EJIL Analysis, European Union
 
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Brexit: Is everything going to change in law, so that very little would change in fact?

Published on June 27, 2016        Author: 

‘A full calorie Brexit or Brexit lite?’, Marko Milanovic has asked on this blog. The different modalities of Brexit are rooted in Article 50 TEU, which foresees a period of two years to negotiate the precise terms of UK’s exit and a future relationship between the UK and the EU. Moreover, the referendum does not have any self-executing legal effects. It will now be on the UK government to decide when (and whether?) Article 50 should be triggered. We agree with Marko’s excellent analysis and believe that, in principle, a number of lite exit diets could be created. What is also possible is that we would get three parallel Brexits, some with more calories than others. England and Wales could leave on different terms than Northern Ireland (which may at least theoretically even stay via the Republic of Ireland); and it is possible that Scotland would continue the UK’s membership with some revisions – and as an independent state.

Brexit lite: replacing EU law with international treaty law

Article 50 does not exclude – perhaps it even encourages – the conversion of a full-fledged membership into a ‘Switzerland-plus-minus’ arrangement. Hence the phrasing in Article 50(2) TEU: ‘[T]aking account of the framework for its [of the exiting member state] future relationship with the Union.’ If it were envisaged from the outset that this relationship would be the same as the relationship between the Union and e.g. Panama, this phrasing would have been completely redundant. Yet, any Conservative PM would probably have difficulties accepting a single market deal with the present free movement of people package. It is difficult to imagine, on the other hand, that the EU could give the UK an asymmetric free movement deal, without people. But then, there is some room to manoeuvre. Read the rest of this entry…

 

Stairway to Brexit

Published on June 24, 2016        Author: 

So it is Brexit. As if the current volatile mix of crises affecting Europe and the world was not enough, British voters  may have just dealt a death blow to the European Union (by 52% to 48%). Or things will eventually work out – nobody really knows. Nor does anybody really know whether we will now have an economic meltdown, or what exact arrangements Britain will negotiate with the EU, i.e. whether it’ll be full-calorie Brexit or Brexit lite, e.g. with respect to the single market and the free movement of people. What we do know is that the UK and the EU are entering a prolonged period of uncertainty.

We have seen (yet again) the power of emotion and identity politics, driven largely by concerns over immigration, with people voting with their guts rather than with their brains – see also Trump, Donald. (Do you know you have more nerve-endings in your gut than in your head? Look it up.) We have also seen how momentous events are shaped not only by structural processes, but also by petty decisions of single individuals who were in the right place at the wrong time. Brexit would never had happened had David Cameron not made a promise he probably didn’t think he would have to keep to have a referendum, all to appease malcontents within his own party. And while a similar gamble succeeded (just barely) with the Scottish referendum, here it backfired rather spectacularly. The Disunited Kingdom, in which London, Scotland and Northern Ireland have all voted Remain but most of England has voted Leave, is very much a reality – at least for now, since Scotland will likely have a second independence referendum in the next few years. That, and the austerity which had the greatest impact on the most vulnerable of people, is the sad legacy of Cameron’s premiership. He has just announced that he will be stepping down as prime minister by October, but the irony is that we may yet remember him sentimentally under, say, a prime minister Boris Johnson.

In other, happier news, Led Zeppelin was cleared by a US jury of charges of plagiarizing the Stairway to Heaven. So enjoy the video below (including Robert Plant’s pant Brexit), while contemplating the future.

 

Filed under: EJIL Analysis, European Union
 
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