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Home Articles posted by Marko Milanovic

Understanding the ICTY’s Impact in the Former Yugoslavia

Published on April 11, 2016        Author: 

As a follow-up to the ICTY extravaganza we’ve had on the blog in the past few weeks, I wanted to post about two companion articles I recently put on SSRN that readers might find of interest. The first is ‘The Impact of the ICTY on the Former Yugoslavia: An Anticipatory Post-Mortem’, and it is forthcoming in the American Journal of International Law; the second is ‘Establishing the Facts About Mass Atrocities: Accounting for the Failure of the ICTY to Persuade Target Audiences,’ and it will be published in the Georgetown Journal of International Law.

The AJIL piece looks at whether the ICTY managed to persuade target populations that the findings in its judgments are true. To answer that question, foundational for transitional justice processes, the article discusses the findings of a series of public opinion surveys in Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia (designed by the Belgrade Centre for Human Rights, sponsored by the OSCE and conducted by Ipsos – detailed charts, mostly in Serbo-Croatian but some in English, are available here) and Kosovo (sponsored by the UNDP and conducted by a local polling agency, here and here).

The detail and amount of data obtained through these surveys provide an unprecedented level of insight into the reception of factual determinations by international criminal tribunals by target audiences. The surveys show that denialism and revisionism are rampant in the former Yugoslavia. For example, twenty years on, barely one-fifth of the Bosnian Serb population believe that any crime (let alone genocide) happened in Srebrenica, while two-fifths say that they never even heard of any such crime. The acceptance levels for many other serious crimes are in the single digits. They also demonstrate a strong relationship between the respondents’ ethnicity, their perception of the ICTY’s bias against members of their own group, and their distrust in the ICTY and in its findings, which increases the more the ICTY challenges the group’s dominant internal narratives.

Survey findings

This is, for example, how divided realities look like in today’s Bosnia (BiH Muslim/Croat Federation results on top; Republika Srpska at the bottom) – note that these are some of the most serious crimes committed in the Bosnian conflict, all of them addressed in major ICTY cases:

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The Sorry Acquittal of Vojislav Seselj

Published on April 4, 2016        Author: 

Last week a Trial Chamber of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia acquitted Vojislav Seselj, an ultra-nationalist Serb politician, for crimes committed in Croatia, Bosnia and even Serbia itself. It did so by 2 votes to 1. Readers will already be familiar with the disaster that was the Seselj trial, which is now further compounded by the judicial fiasco that is the trial judgment. Fiasco is in fact the word used by the presiding French judge, Jean-Claude Antonetti, to describe the case in the conclusion of his profoundly dilettantish 500-page concurring opinion. This concurrence is a perfect sequel to his equally unreadable 600-page doozy in the Prlic case, and he uses it to blame everybody but himself for everything that went wrong in the case which is, well, everything. The judgment (in French) is here, as is the dissenting opinion of Judge Lattanzi (‘dissenting’ is not a strong enough word, as she herself says); the summaries of the judgment and the dissent in English are here and here.

Corax, Danas 4.4.2016.

There are so many problems with this judgment that it’s hard to know where to start, so let me paint you the big picture. The main issue is not with the acquittal, which may or may not be the appropriate result, but with how that result was reached. The entire judgment is a reductionist dismissal of the case presented by the prosecution, which is always taken as ungenerously as is humanly possible, while at the same time castigating the prosecution (without any hint of self-irony) for presenting a reductionist version of the complex reality of the wars of the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia.

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ICTY Convicts Radovan Karadzic

Published on March 25, 2016        Author: 

Yesterday the ICTY Trial Chamber convicted Radovan Karadzic, the wartime political leader of the Bosnian Serbs, for numerous crimes committed during the conflict and sentenced him to 40 years imprisonment. The (mammoth) trial judgment is here, standing at 2615 pages that not even Karadzic’s lawyers will read as a whole; the more accessible summary is here.

The end result is basically as I predicted it will be a couple of days ago – Karadzic got acquitted for genocide in Bosnian municipalities other than Srebrenica, and got convicted for everything else, including the Srebrenica genocide. The sentence is effectively life; he could be eligible for provisional release after serving 2/3 of his sentence, which would (counting the 7 years and 8 months he already spent in detention) mean he would have to spend some 19 more years in prison – but if he lives into his nineties he may get provisionally released, assuming of course that the sentence is affirmed on appeal and that he does not eventually get released on compassionate grounds.

On the vast majority of issues the Trial Chamber was unanimous (I’ll come to points of dissent later on), and that is a very good thing. All in all the judgment is basically exactly what it should have been, although the political reactions in the region are also exactly what one might have expected – while many Bosniaks welcomed the conviction they also decried the acquittal for genocide outside Srebrenica, whereas the current Bosnian Serb president has decried the judgment as yet another example of the ICTY’s anti-Serb bias. So far so predictable. That said, I will spend the remainder of this post on looking at some of the more interesting parts of the judgment, based on a very quick skim read.

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New ICRC Commentary to the First Geneva Convention

Published on March 22, 2016        Author: 

The International Committee of the Red Cross has launched the first batch of its  new commentary to the Geneva Conventions, following up on the authoritative, but dated, commentaries edited by Jean Pictet. The commentary to GC I is available here; the commentaries are published electronically, side by side with the prior Pictet version, and are comprehensive, accessible and easy to use. An ICRC press release is available here. The commentaries to the other three Conventions will follow in due course, but a lot of the foundational work on the common articles will of course be the same across all of the treaties. All in all this is a major endeavour by the ICRC (which more academic commentary complements nicely), and I hope it will be prove to be as successful as the Pictet commentary and the customary law study.

 

ICTY Karadzic and Seselj Trial Judgments Due

Published on March 21, 2016        Author: 

This International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia is due to pronounce its trial judgments in two important cases, against Radovan Karadzic, the former political leader of the Bosnian Serbs, on Thursday 24 March, and against Vojislav Seselj, the ultra-nationalist leader of the Serbian Radical Party, on 31 March. The Karadzic case is of course more important by far than the Seselj one, with (since Milosevic’s passing) Karadzic being the highest-ranked defendant with respect to atrocities committed during the Bosnian war. For our earlier coverage of the two cases, see here and here.

As I’ve recently explained elsewhere, the outcome of the Karadzic case is hardly in doubt – he will be convicted. The only question is what exactly for. He will also get a very long sentence, which will because of his age be tantamount to life imprisonment even if he doesn’t get that formally. Karadzic’s legal advisor, the excellent Peter Robinson (whom we’ve had in Nottingham last week for a seminar), is quite open about getting ready for an appeal (see Guardian report here). There is, in other words, not all that much suspense about what’s going to happen come Thursday, and the political reactions to the conviction in the former Yugoslavia are also equally predictable.

That said, what are the points to watch for in the judgment which may be of some genuine novelty? First, unlike with the crime base, which was already clarified in numerous ICTY judgments, it will be interesting to see what the Trial Chamber finds with respect to Karadzic’s individual guilt – what did he exactly know and when, what did he intend, and what specific joint criminal enterprise (JCE) was he a part of? This will be of particular relevance to the 1995 Srebrenica genocide – Karadzic certainly didn’t do anything to punish the perpetrators after the fact, but it’s important to see (or what the prosecution was able to prove about) what he knew  before the genocide started and while it was underway.

Second, Karadzic is charged with genocide not only in Srebrenica, but also in several other Bosnian municipalities, as is the Bosnian Serb general, Ratko Mladic, whose trial is still underway. In other cases the ICTY could find genocide ‘only’ in Srebrenica, with atrocities elsewhere being qualified as war crimes or crimes against humanity. This Trial Chamber has actually already found that the prosecution wasn’t able to meet the burden of proving genocide outside Srebrenica after a rule 98bis ‘no case to answer’ motion upon the conclusion of the prosecution’s case. This decision was later reversed on appeal, but it seems unlikely that the same Trial Chamber will find genocide to have now been proven to the higher beyond a reasonable doubt standard, except in Srebrenica. The Chamber’s finding will however be of great political relevance in the region, because of the particular corrosive potency of the word genocide and its impact on the competitive victimhood of the various groups, and will also be of relevance for the Mladic case. While I therefore expect acquittal for genocide in non-Srebrenica municipalities, it remains to be seen whether that will survive an appeal before the Mechanism, where the whole thing will be revisited.

Finally, as for Seselj the outcome there is far less certain, but expecting a conviction that would cover the time he already spent in detention would not be unreasonable. That case is more notable for its disastrous mismanagement and the consequent public relations nightmare than for anything else. Seselj is now in Serbia and has refused to go back to the Hague for the pronouncement of the judgment. The Serbian authorities (led by his erstwhile party comrades) similarly refused (if with a bit more diplomatic obfuscation) to arrest him and send him to the ICTY, because of the damage this could cause them in an election year. Three of Seselj’s advisers have been charged with contempt by the ICTY and they too have not been sent to the Hague, for the same basic reason. The Serbian authorities are essentially exploiting the ICTY’s impending closure and betting (probably correctly) that this lack of cooperation will not cause them significant political problems internationally.

An interesting couple of weeks ahead for the Tribunal – we will have more coverage as the events unfold.

 
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ICTY Appeals Chamber Reverses Stanisic and Simatovic Acquittal, Orders Retrial, Kills Off Specific Direction (Again!)

Published on December 15, 2015        Author: 

Today the Appeals Chamber of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia quashed the acquittal at trial of Jovica Stanisic and Franko Simatovic, the former head and deputy head of the Serbian secret police during the Milosevic regime, for crimes committed in Bosnia and Croatia. This is a big deal – S&S is the only remaining case tying the leadership of Serbia with crimes committed by Bosnian and Croatian Serbs. The trial judgment (itself delivered by a majority) was quashed on two grounds: that the Trial Chamber failed to properly reason its decision regarding the participation of the accused in a joint criminal enterprise, in particular because it could not analyse their mens rea without determining the actus reus of the JCE, and because it committed an error of law regarding the actus reus of aiding and abetting liability. (Appeals judgment here, press release and summary here.)

This latter point is one that will be familiar to our readers, as it is the (final?) nail in the coffin for the whole specific direction saga that we extensively covered on the blog (see here and here). As I explained in my earlier post, the ICTY Appeals Chamber went through an episode of self-fragmentation, with the Sainovic AC overruling the Perisic AC’s finding that specific direction was an element of the actus reus of aiding and abetting. As I also explained in that post, the outcome of S&S with respect to the specific direction point would essentially be determined by the composition of the Appeals Chamber in that case. That’s exactly what happened, with the S&S AC upholding the Sainovic rejection of specific direction by 3 votes to 2. The three votes in the majority were all judges who formed the Sainovic AC majority (Pocar, Liu, Ramaroson), while of the two judges in dissent one (Agius) was in the Perisic majority and the other (Afande) was not involved in the prior cases, and was hence the only unknown quantity.

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France Derogates from ECHR in the Wake of the Paris Attacks

Published on December 13, 2015        Author: 

On 24 November, France filed a formal notice of derogation from the European Convention on Human Rights with the Secretary-General of the Council of Europe. The notice is available here (and is reproduced in full below), while the French legislation referred to in the notice is available here. As far as I could tell from the UNTC website, France has not (yet) derogated from the ICCPR. The state of emergency in France has been used even with respect to issues that have no bearing on terrorism, for example to curb climate change protests in Paris. The emergency powers have been criticised on civil liberties grounds, e.g. by Human Rights Watch. It seems likely that they will be at issue in litigation before French domestic courts and before the European Court in Strasbourg. In that regard, the derogation notice is remarkably vague and unhelpful, merely stating that some of the emergency measures ‘may involve a derogation from the obligations’ under the ECHR, without explaining which measures exactly do, in fact, require a derogation and to what extent, let alone why precisely were those specific measures strictly required by the exigencies of the situation. What Strasbourg will make of this rather pro forma derogation if and when a relevant case comes before it is anyone’s guess.

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Blockbuster Strasbourg Judgment on Surveillance in Russia

Published on December 7, 2015        Author: 

Last Friday a unanimous Grand Chamber of the European Court delivered a hugely important judgment in Roman Zakharov v. Russia, no. 47143/06, in which it found serious and systematic faults with the Russian legislative framework regulating the surveillance of mobile communications. This is set to be a leading Strasbourg authority on assessing the compliance of surveillance measures with human rights law, a topic we’ve already extensively discussed on the blog. This judgment important for a number of reasons.

First, because a unanimous Grand Chamber reaffirmed much of relatively older or Chamber-based case law, and applied the principles it identified robustly. This provides an important indication that the Court remains acutely aware of the dangers surveillance programs possibly pose to democratic societies, and that it will also scrutinize such programs robustly in the cases shortly coming before it, e.g. against the United Kingdom. I must say that I was particularly struck by how the Russian judge in the Court, Judge Dedov, concluded his concurring opinion with a quote from Edward Snowden – with the added irony of Snowden still continuing his sojourn in Russia, the very country whose regulatory system of surveillance the Court exposed as so sorely inadequate.

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How the Ambiguity of Resolution 2249 Does Its Work

Published on December 3, 2015        Author: 

Yesterday, after 10 hours of debate, the UK Parliament approved the use of UK armed forces against ISIS on the territory of Syria; the German Bundestag also debated the use of force and will vote on the involvement of Germany in the coalition operation tomorrow. I found it particularly interesting to observe how the constructive ambiguity of the Security Council’s resolution 2249 (2015), that Dapo and I extensively addressed in our previous post, was used by the MPs during their debate.

When it comes to the UK Government’s official legal position on the use of force in Syria, they have been very careful not to rely on the resolution as a separate source of authority, but as a (unanimous) reaffirmation of the legal authority they already thought they had. That position is articulated most clearly in this memorandum from the Prime Minister to Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, at pp. 15-17, and the legal bases for the use of force set out there are (1) the collective self-defence of Iraq and (2) the individual self-defence of the UK against ISIS, both pursuant to Article 51 of the Charter. The resolution is used to buttress these two claims, for example with the memorandum stating that: “Resolution 2249 (2015) both condemns the ISIL’s horrendous attacks that have taken place and notes ISIL’s intent and capability to carry out further attacks. It then calls upon States to take lawful action to prevent such attacks.”

Similarly, in his statement to the House of Commons on 26 November regarding that memorandum, the Prime Minister stated that:

It is a long-standing constitutional convention that we don’t publish our formal legal advice. But the document I have published today shows in some detail the clear legal basis for military action against ISIL in Syria. It is founded on the right of self-defence as recognised in Article 51 of the UN Charter. The right of self‑defence may be exercised individually where it is necessary to the UK’s own defence… …and of course collectively in the defence of our friends and allies. Mr Speaker, the main basis of the global coalition’s actions against ISIL in Syria is the collective self-defence of Iraq. Iraq has a legitimate government, one that we support and help. There is a solid basis of evidence on which to conclude, firstly, that there is a direct link between the presence and activities of ISIL in Syria, and their ongoing attack in Iraq… ….and, secondly, that the Assad regime is unwilling and/or unable to take action necessary to prevent ISIL’s continuing attack on Iraq – or indeed attacks on us. It is also clear that ISIL’s campaign against the UK and our allies has reached the level of an ‘armed attack’ such that force may lawfully be used in self-defence to prevent further atrocities being committed by ISIL.

And this is further underscored by the unanimous adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2249. We should be clear about what this resolution means and what it says. The whole world came together – including all 5 members of the Security Council – to agree this resolution unanimously. The resolution states that ISIL, and I quote: “constitutes a global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security.” It calls for member states, and again I quote: to take “all necessary measures” to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by ISIL… …and crucially is says that we should, and again I quote: “eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Iraq and Syria.”

Note how despite saying that “we should be clear about what this resolution means and what it says” the Prime Minister only proceeds to quote the resolution’s language, without explaining in any way whatsover (let alone clearly so) what it means and what it says. (By the way, isn’t that just wonderful howe he did that?)

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The ICRC’s Position on a Functional Approach to Occupation

Published on November 18, 2015        Author: 

It is always interesting to observe the evolution of the (infrequent) public official positions that the International Committee of the Red Cross adopts on controversial questions of international humanitarian law. The particular position I’d like to flag is the one on a functional approach to the end of belligerent occupation. This position is clearly of particular importance to the question of whether Gaza continues to be occupied by Israel, which I’ve looked at here on the blog a couple of times before (see here and here).

Some years ago the ICRC held a series of expert meetings on various issues arising out of the law of belligerent occupation, including the beginning and end of occupation. The 2012 report on the meetings is available here. The issue of the end of occupation proved to be controversial, especially on the example of Gaza. Some degree of consensus emerged that the legal criteria for ending an occupation should be the same as for establishing the occupation, but that the evidentiary factors to be taken into account may differ. Thus, an occupation would end if the occupant lost effective control of the territory or obtained valid consent from the sovereign of the territory to its presence there.

Also in 2012, the ICRC legal advisor dealing with the occupation issue, Tristan Ferraro, published an academic article on the beginning and end of occupation in the International Review of the Red Cross. Like most pieces written by ICRC legal advisors, the article includes an initial footnote which specifies that the ‘article was written in a personal capacity and does not necessarily reflect the views of the ICRC.’ In the article Ferraro argues in favour of a functional approach to occupation, where the end to an occupation should not be seen as an all or nothing switch.

With regard to the Gaza controversy in particular, the ICRC took the position (shared by many humanitarian NGOs) that Gaza remains occupied by Israel. In 2014, writing in the Israel Law Review, the ICRC president noted (p. 179) that ‘In the view of the ICRC, Israel continues to be bound by obligations under occupation law that are commensurate with the degree to which it exercises control.’

Last week, the ICRC published its challenges to IHL report (available on Just Security), written for the forthcoming ICRC conference in December (see also Gabor Rona’s post on the report here). And here, on pp. 11-12, we have an extensive articulation of the ICRC’s official position:

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